The aerospace industry, by its very nature, is cyclical. Commercial aviation is susceptible to changing international situations and market forces that are beyond the control of aerospace companies. Regional conflicts, terrorism and the unpredictability of oil costs can all influence air travel and market demand for new aircraft. Military and space programs rely on political support and shifting national priorities can alter and even end program funding with little notice.

While the aerospace industry offers a dynamic and challenging environment for engineers, these types of issues can create volatility, which in turn can create a perception of instability. That perceived lack of security can adversely effect recruitment so it's common and reasonable for those entering the profession over the next five to ten years to ask -- Can the aerospace industry can provide a stable employment experience? The simple answer is "yes."

No industry is immune from the ups and downs of the economy and there are bound to be staffing adjustments as projects wind down and new ones are started. However, the industry as a whole has learned from experience what to expect and individual firms have learned that they can manage cycle extremes by changing how they operate. Companies have instituted new methods, processes and employee training programs that have made them much more productive than they were just 15 years ago. These innovations, coupled with better workforce management, mean that companies can adjust to sales shifts without massive expansion or rapid downsizing. The result is a much more stable workforce.

Another important consideration is that the aerospace industry is not attracting enough engineers to replace those getting ready to retire. This is especially true in the U.S., as more than 60,000 engineers working in aerospace and defense are set to retire by 2012. This will create many opportunities for the recent graduate looking for opportunities in commercial or military aviation or in space systems, even with only modest growth in commercial or military programs.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed this assessment in its 2004 -- 2014 Occupational Outlook Handbook:

"Aerospace engineers are expected to have slower-than-average* growth in employment over the projection period. Although increases in the number and scope of military aerospace projects likely will generate new jobs, increased efficiency will limit the number of new jobs in the design and production of commercial aircraft. Even with slow growth, the employment outlook for aerospace engineers through 2014 appears favorable. The number of degrees granted in aerospace engineering declined for many years because of a perceived lack of opportunities in this field, and, although this trend is reversing, new graduates continue to be needed to replace aerospace engineers who retire or leave the occupation for other reasons."

* Employment is expected to increase 0 to 8%.
Note: The BLS updates its projections every several years.
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A final consideration is the emergence of a group of visionaries called "space entrepreneurs." Although the long-term impact on aerospace employment is still unclear, these individuals have moved beyond the traditional aerospace companies and started private ventures aimed at creating new business models and developing innovative technologies for aerospace-related programs and products. These space entrepreneurs, if successful, may reshape the aerospace industry and at the same time provide engineers with new employment opportunities not even imagined today.